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太平洋两岸构架一座横跨海洋的大桥

Today we are here to discuss how to build a bridge across the ocean on both sides of the Pacific Ocean.




I remember that Nixon once said in Shanghai, China, "In the past, we used to be enemies. Today we still have huge differences. What brings us together is us. There are more common interests than these differences. When we discuss our differences. Neither of us will compromise on the principle of our own interests. However, although we cannot bridge the gap between us, we can manage to build a bridge so that we can cross it to talk. There is no reason to be an enemy, now It’s time for us to climb the great realm and create a new, better world!”




     Dear CSIS international strategic experts, as the president of the North China Alumni Association of China Northwestern University, I am honored to participate in and share your high-sounding and incisive analysis, but I also have my own in the American society. Seek practical lessons from more than ten years. In the US-China trade war, competition is only a means of cooperation and win-win. Mutual benefit and win-win is the fundamental purpose of trade war. By following this criterion, we can actively and friendlyly negotiate and negotiate for each other's common interests. According to this standard, we can give full play to their respective characteristics and advantages and make up for their own shortcomings and gaps. By following this code, we can take care of the interests of the United States and take care of the US Republican candidate, President Trump, eager to make concessions and agreements on agricultural procurement and other aspects. By following this principle, we can hope to respect each other's core interests of the sovereignty and unity of each country's sovereignty, jointly oppose the violent acts of violence and riots that create the country's division, and promote the stable and harmonious development of the country and society. We hope that the future of the United States will be even better!

今天我们在这里美国国际战略智库CSIS的大庭广众面前,讨论如何在太平洋两岸构架一座横跨海洋的大桥。




记得尼克松在中国上海曾经说过“过去我们有时候曾经是敌人,今天我们仍有巨大的分歧,使我们走到一起的,是我们,有超过这些分歧的共同利益。在我们讨论我们的分歧时,我们双方都不会在自己的利益原则上妥协。但是,我们虽然不能弥合我们之间的鸿沟,我们却能够设法搭建一座桥,以便我们能够越过它进行会谈。我们没有理由成为敌人,现在是只争朝夕的时候了现在是我们两国人民攀登伟大境界的高峰,缔造新的,更美好的世界的时候了!”




     尊敬的各位CSIS国际战略问题专家们,作为中国西北大学北美校友会大华府分会的会长,我在这里很荣幸参加并分享了您们的高谈阔论,精辟分析,但我也有我在美国社会上下求索十多年的实践经验教训。美中贸易战,竞争只是合作共赢的手段,互利共赢才是贸易战的根本目的。遵循这一准则,我们才能为了共同利益各自进行积极友善地协商谈判,根据这一准则,我们才能充分发挥各自的特点和优势,弥补自身存在的不足和差距。遵循这一准则,我们才能从照顾美国利益,照顾美国共和党参选人特朗普总统期待的急于在农产品采购和其他方面的让步和协议。遵循这一准则,我们才能希望相互尊重彼此国家主权完整统一的核心利益,共同反对制造国家分裂的暴力和暴动的恐怖行为,促进国家和社会的稳定和谐发展。我们希望美国的明天会更美好!

Both the US and China Shanghai trade negotiations have paid substantial and constructive exploration and efforts. "If you want to speed, you won't reach it." "Frozen three feet is not a cold day," "rice should be eaten bit by bit." Our esteemed President Donald Trump, in an eagerness to show his extraordinary ability to lead the economic lifeline of the US relationship in front of American voters, and to decide the success or failure of the US-China trade war, suddenly announced the addition of tariffs on 300 billion Chinese products. However, this kind of "extreme pressure" decision-making, China has adapted to President Trump's routine, adopted an inevitable counter-measure of the United States, closed the door to the purchase of US bulk agricultural products, the loss of US interests and the rebound of American companies. It is stronger than China’s reaction, the stock market has fallen sharply, investor confidence has fallen to a new low, and the US manufacturing activity index has fallen for four consecutive months. The confidence and investment willingness of the US-China bilateral cooperation relationship has been greatly reduced. This result is not what we want to see.

美中上海贸易谈判双方各自都付出了实质和建设性的探索和努力。“欲速则不达”。“冰冻三尺非一日之寒”,“饭要一口一口吃”。我们尊敬的唐纳德.特朗普总统,为了急于在美国选民面前展示他非凡的主导美国关系经济命脉的能力,以及主导美中贸易战成败的决定权,突然宣布加征3000亿中国产品的关税。但这种“极限施压”的轻率决策,中方已经适应了特朗普总统的套路,采取了必然的反制美国措施,关上了采购美国大宗农产品的大门美国利益的损失和美国企业的反弹,要比中国的反应更加强烈,股市大幅下挫,投资者信心陷入新低,美国制造业活动指数连续四个月下降。美中双边合作关系的信心和投资意愿大为减少。这种结果不是我们所希望看到的现象。

The purpose of the Sino-US trade war is not to solve the imbalance of the trade deficit, and certainly not just a trade issue. Instead, we must fight the Chinese economic system through trade wars, fight the Chinese government, and fight for the hopes and dreams of China's rise! From the comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic and domestic economic structure, the US-China trade war, such a sharp and uncompromising opposition, such a tit-for-tat confrontation, because the United States’ relative competitiveness and comprehensive strength are instead “striking” and “stimulating China” Accelerating from the United States and still growing rapidly" (flying against the wind). The containment and pressure exerted by the United States in recent years have caused Chinese companies and individuals who originally invested in the United States to withdraw or significantly reduce their original scale and projects. Even Taiwan’s Guo Taiming’s vowed investment has shrunk dramatically, and his face is completely different. This is the reality of the domestic economic structure of the United States. The United States has become a "fragile power" (behind the US-China trade war) USA: Fragile Superpower. This is the inevitable result of the "100-year marathon" confrontation and game between the two sides of the Pacific. The Hundred Year Marathon: Who Will Win ? If the United States continues to adopt such constant "extreme pressure", "unilateralism", "isolationism", "American priority" hegemonism, power politics, that is the "zero-sum game" undoubtedly the result of competition.

中美貿易戰的目的,並不是解決貿易赤字的不平衡問題,當然也不是僅僅是貿易問題。而是要通過貿易戰打垮中國經濟體制,打垮中國政府,打垮中國崛起的希望和夢想!从宏观经济和国内经济结构的综合分析,美中贸易战,如此尖锐不妥协的对立,如此针锋相对的对抗下去,因为美国的相对竞争力和综合实力反而呈现“此消彼长”,“刺激中国加速脱离美国而依然快速成长”(逆风飞扬)的现象。美国近年来的遏制和施压,使得中国原本投资美国的企业和个人,纷纷退出,或大幅减少原来的规模和项目。就连台湾的郭台铭信誓旦旦的投资也大幅缩水,面貌全非。这就是现实的美国国内经济格局。美国已经变成“脆弱的强国”(在美中贸易战的背后)USA: Fragile Superpower. 这是太平洋两岸“百年马拉松”对抗和博弈的必然结果。 The Hundred Year Marathon: Who Will Win ?如果美国继续采取这样不断“极限施压”,“单边主义”,“孤立主义”,“美国优先”的霸权主义,强权政治,那是“零和博弈”毫无疑问的竞争结果。

The shadow of Taiwan’s 228 incident is behind the events in Hong Kong’s Occupy and Anti-Send


If "Hong Kong's Occupy Events", "Reverse Sending Incidents", "Taiwan Crisis", and other factors surrounding the deterioration of China's surrounding investment environment, it will trigger a regional financial crisis, forcing the investment environment in Hong Kong, China to deteriorate, resulting in investors. A large amount of capital is withdrawn, so that the dollar can profit from it. This is the marginal effect of the US-China trade war. Third, in order to discredit China’s "one country, two systems" and the need for Taiwan's 2020 elections, Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen authorities have used various resources to intervene in "Hong Kong's demonstrations and violence" in Hong Kong's anti-government riots. These facts can be seen as a slap in the face of the sea and self-deception. "Democracy", "violence", "accidental events"?
Here is a comparison of the violent riots in Hong Kong. I think of the "228 incident" that happened when I was born in Taiwan, because when the Japanese Emperor Meiji 815 unconditionally surrendered, to October 25 of the same year, The Chinese National Government officially accepted the ceremony, during which the Japanese colonial authorities printed a large amount of Taiwanese currency in Japan and sent it to Japanese survivors and old officials left in Taiwan. In order to buy Taiwan's civilian fat people, living materials, and shipped back to Japan. The Taiwan provincial government is helpless and has printed a large amount of new Taiwan dollars, which has caused the people of Taiwan to fall into dire straits. On February 28, 1947, the Taipei citizens stopped the city and marched to petition the government to hand over the shooting police. The Kuomintang authorities also suppressed the anger of the people and erupted a large-scale armed riot. Within a few days, rioters controlled most parts of Taiwan Province. Chen Yi, the chief executive of Taiwan Province, called for assistance in Nanjing. The Nationalist government stationed the 21st army stationed in Shanghai to land in Keelung and stationed in Taipei. The masses were suppressed by the masses and the movement eventually failed. The February 28 incident was one of the most important events in the modern history of Taiwan. Taiwan followed up with 38 years of martial law. Will this kind of history still appear in Hong Kong today? !


香港占中事件和反送中事件的背后笼罩着台湾228事件的阴影


如果说“香港占中事件”,“反送中事件”,“台海危机”,等这些中国周边投资环境恶化,那就会引爆地区性金融危机,迫使中国香港地区的投资环境恶化,以致投资人大量撤出资本,如此一来,美元又可以从中获利。这就是美中贸易战的边际效应。再次,为了诋毁中国“一国两制”和2020年台湾选举的需要,台湾蔡英文当局赤裸裸地利用各种资源介入“香港示威暴力”香港反政府暴动,这些欲盖弥彰,瞒天过海,自欺欺人的事实还能看成是“民主”“暴力”“偶然事件”吗?
这里对比香港暴力暴动越演越烈的时局,我联想到我在台湾我出生时那一年爆发的“228事件”,因为在日本明治天皇815无条件投降时,到同年的10月25日,中国国民政府正式接受仪式,期间日本殖民当局在日本大量印制台币,发送给遗留在台湾的日本遗民和旧官员。以套购台湾的民脂民膏,生活物资,并运回日本。而台湾省政府束手无策,也大量印制新台币,使得台湾人民陷入了水深火热之中。1947年2月28日,台北市民罢市、游行请愿要求政府交出开枪警察,又遭国民党当局的镇压,激起了民众的愤怒,爆发了大规模武装暴动。几天之内,暴动民众控制了台湾省大部分地区。台湾省行政长官陈仪急电南京求援,国民政府调驻守上海的21军在基隆登陆,进驻台北,对群众进行大规模镇压,运动最终失败。二二八事件是台湾现代史最重要的事件之一,台湾紧接着实施长达38年的戒严。这种历史难道还会在今天的香港重演出现吗?!

However, it is unfortunate that the American and Taiwanese Taiwan independence elements are inaccurate in their judgments on Hong Kong and Taiwan. This time, the opponent they encountered was China. China has used the basic law of Hong Kong and the way of building a "firewall" and "Hong Kong people ruling Hong Kong" to fight Tai Chi. It has calmly dealt with the Hong Kong crisis. As a result, the last one that the United States most hoped for at the 99-degree water temperature has never appeared. It has never been boiled. The water did not boil, and the Fed’s horn with a rate cut was too late to work. It seems that President Trump of the United States knows that it is not so easy to cut Chinese wool, so he did not intend to hang himself on a tree. On the same day that the interest rate cut was announced, Hong Kong’s “reverse delivery” demonstration was “riot” and it was straightforward to say, “Hong Kong is a part of China and must handle this matter by itself.” “They don’t need advice.” But the US public opinion Other voices in the political circles have publicly emphasized that the "anti-China demonstration" democracy movement in Hong Kong certainly has the strong support and participation of American CIA personnel. Because it is in the interest of the United States, the United States has invested a lot of resources and money.

但美国人和台湾台独分子对香港和台湾问题的判断不准确也很不幸,这回它碰到的对手是中国。中国用香港的基本法和打造“防火墙”“港人治港”打太极的方式,冷静处理香港危机,结果直到现在,美国最希望的在99度水温时出现的最后1度,始终没出现,水也就一直没烧开。水没烧开,美联储举着降息的号角也迟迟不能奏效。看来,美国特朗普总统知道想剪中国的羊毛没那么容易,所以也就没打算就在一棵树上吊死。在宣布降息的同一天,表示香港“反送中”示威是“骚乱(riot),并直截了当说,“香港是中国的一部分,必须自己处理此事”。“他们不需要建议”。但是美国舆论和政界的另外一些声音,公开强调,香港“反中示威”民主运动当然有美国CIA人员的大力支持和参与,因为这符合美国的利益,所以,美国投资了大量的资源和金钱。

Finally, we hope that the experts and scholars of the US international strategic think tank will rationally view the long-term cooperation interests between the United States and China. Since I have you, you have me, we can't destroy each other, then we are the only ones. s Choice. Seizing the opportunity, life is limited, the president's term is very limited, and the difference between one thought and one hand can solve the problem of the people and turn the Chinese people into friends who build a beautiful home in the United States. The Chinese people will not forget that the great President of Lincoln has ended the southern group that split the country. The Chinese people will not forget the President of Roosevelt who supported China during World War II. The Chinese people will not forget President Nixon who opened the door to the United States and China. We will not forget the current special All good and practical things that President Ramp has done to improve US-China relations. Although we cannot bridge the gap between us, we can manage to build a bridge so that we can cross it to talk. We have no reason to be an enemy. Now is the time to fight for the day. Now is the time for our two peoples to climb the great realm and create a new, better world! ”

最后,我们希望美国国际战略智库的专家学者,理性地看待美中之间长远的合作利益,既然我中有你,你中有我,我们不能消灭对方,那么,化危为机,是我们唯一的选择。抓住机遇,人生有限,总统的任期很有限,一念之差,举手之劳,就可以解民倒悬,把中国人民变成美国共建美好家园的朋友。中国人民不会忘记伟大的林肯总统结束了分裂国家的南方集团,中国人民不会忘记二战中支持中国的罗斯福总统,中国人民不会忘记打开美中大门的尼克松总统,我们也不会忘记现任特朗普总统为改善美中关系所做的一切好事和实事。我们虽然不能弥合我们之间的鸿沟,我们却能够设法搭建一座桥,以便我们能够越过它进行会谈。我们没有理由成为敌人,现在是只争朝夕的时候了现在是我们两国人民攀登伟大境界的高峰,缔造新的,更美好的世界的时候了!”




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CSIS | Center for Strategic & International Studies
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